Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation Method
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method involves projecting future cash flows generated by a company and discounting them back to their present value using an appropriate discount rate. This method separates the cash flows into components based on the recipients:
- Shareholders
- Bondholders/Third-party lenders
- Tax authorities
Steps include:
- Forecast net operating cash flows over a defined future period.
- Determine an appropriate discount rate that reflects the risk profile (e.g., equity risk premium, beta, liquidity premium).
- Discount the projected cash flows back to present value using the selected discount rate.
Advantages of DCF
- Based on cash flow fundamentals of a company
- Discount rate serves as a flexible tool to incorporate business and market risks
- Customisable to different scenarios, assumptions, and business models
Disadvantages of DCF
- Forecast accuracy diminishes with longer time horizons
- Challenging to project cash flows for smaller or early-stage companies
- Highly sensitive to assumptions, especially terminal value and discount rate
- Data scarcity in certain regions/sectors can impact discount rate accuracy