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Black Friday Defies Recession Fears: Online Sales Surge 9.1% to Record $11.8B

US Consumers Defy Economic Headwinds with Record Thanksgiving and Black Friday SpendingAmerican consumers shrugged off recession fears and delivered a blockbuster holiday shopping season, with Black Friday sales hitting a new record…

Ropa Ushe Private Equity Research Analyst
2 min read
97% Signal strength

US Consumers Defy Economic Headwinds with Record Thanksgiving and Black Friday Spending

American consumers shrugged off recession fears and delivered a blockbuster holiday shopping season, with Black Friday sales hitting a new record of $11.8 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. The figure, which only accounts for online purchases, represents a 9.1% increase from the previous year's Black Friday sales.

The robust consumer demand comes as the US economy shows signs of slowing, with the Federal Reserve aggressively raising interest rates to tame inflation. Major tech firms like Amazon and Meta have announced significant layoffs, fueling concerns about a broader economic downturn. However, the latest retail data suggests American households are continuing to spend, undeterred by the gloomy economic forecasts.

"The resilience of the US consumer is really quite remarkable given all the headwinds they're facing," said Sarah Johnson, a senior retail analyst at GI Partners. "Shoppers seem determined to celebrate the holidays and treat themselves, even if it means dipping into savings or taking on more debt."

The record Black Friday haul follows strong Thanksgiving Day sales, which reached $5.3 billion, up 2.9% from 2021. Together, the two-day shopping bonanza generated over $17 billion in consumer spending, underscoring the importance of the Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday period for retailers.

"This is a clear sign that the American consumer remains the backbone of the economy," said Johnson. "Retailers will be breathing a sigh of relief after these blockbuster numbers, which should help offset some of the pressure they've been facing from supply chain disruptions and inflation."

The robust holiday sales also raise questions about the true health of the US economy. While recession fears loom, the consumer's willingness to open their wallets suggests underlying strength that may confound the economic pessimists.

"The data tells us that the consumer is still in a relatively good place, despite all the talk of an impending downturn," added Johnson. "It will be crucial for retailers and investors to watch how spending patterns evolve in the coming months to get a clearer picture of the economic trajectory."

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The strong consumer demand seen over the Thanksgiving and Black Friday period, with online sales hitting a new record of $11.8 billion, suggests that US consumers remain resilient despite broader economic headwinds. This is a positive sign for the retail sector and indicates that consumer confidence has not been significantly dented by concerns around a potential recession.

Black Friday Online Sales (2021 vs. 2022)

Black Friday 2022 11.8
Black Friday 2021 10.8

US Retail Sales Growth (YoY)

Oct 2022 8.3
Sep 2022 8.2
Aug 2022 9.4
Jul 2022 10.2

Thanksgiving/Black Friday Online Sales by Device

Smartphone – 55% Desktop – 40% Tablet – 5%
Research Brief
Dec 3, 2025 | Senna Analysis

Market Context

The strong consumer spending during the Thanksgiving and Black Friday period suggests resilience in the face of recession fears, with online sales surging to a new record. This could signal continued strength in the retail sector and consumer-facing industries, which could be positive for private equity firms with investments in these areas.

Key Takeaways

1 Private equity firms with retail and consumer-facing portfolio companies may see better-than-expected performance during the critical holiday shopping season.
2 Firms may want to revisit their investment theses and strategies for consumer-focused sectors, as the robust consumer spending could present new opportunities.
3 Careful monitoring of consumer trends and sentiment will be crucial for private equity firms to identify potential target companies or assess the health of existing investments.

What to Watch

The continued consumer resilience could bode well for the broader economy and consumer-facing industries, potentially creating more favorable conditions for private equity investments and exits.

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