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The $Trillions at Stake if Critical Mineral Mining Fails to Deliver a Just Transition

Critical Minerals: The Cornerstone of a Just TransitionThe shift to a low-carbon economy hinges on securing a reliable supply of critical minerals, but experts warn that mining these resources must be done…

Ropa Ushe Private Equity Research Analyst
3 min read
96% Signal strength

Critical Minerals: The Cornerstone of a Just Transition

The shift to a low-carbon economy hinges on securing a reliable supply of critical minerals, but experts warn that mining these resources must be done in a way that benefits local communities and the environment.

As the world races to deploy more renewable energy, electric vehicles and other green technologies, the demand for minerals like lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements is soaring. However, the extraction and processing of these materials have often been plagued by environmental degradation, human rights abuses and a lack of equitable distribution of economic gains.

"If we don't get the mining side right, we won't achieve a just transition," said Sophia Pickles, a senior campaigner at Global Witness, an advocacy group. "There's a real risk of swapping one set of problems for another if we don't fundamentally reform how critical minerals are sourced and produced."

The challenge is acute. The International Energy Agency estimates that meeting global climate goals will require a quadrupling of mineral supplies by 2040. But mining companies have struggled to keep pace, hampered by permitting delays, cost overruns and opposition from local communities.

"We're seeing a growing disconnect between the speed at which the energy transition needs to happen and the time it takes to bring new mining projects online," said Daniel Litvin, founder of Critical Resource, a consulting firm. "If we don't address this, it could seriously undermine the transition."

Experts say the solution lies in a fundamental rethinking of the industry, with a greater emphasis on transparency, environmental protection and equitable benefit-sharing. This could include reforms to royalty and tax regimes, stronger environmental and social safeguards, and more collaborative partnerships with Indigenous communities.

"Mining companies have to move beyond a 'dig, deliver, depart' mentality and become true partners with the local populations," said Pickles. "That means sharing decision-making power, investing in sustainable development and ensuring the benefits of mining are widely distributed."

Some companies are already taking steps in this direction. Rio Tinto, one of the world's largest mining firms, has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions across its operations by 2050 and to work more closely with Indigenous groups. Likewise, Tesla has sought to secure lithium supplies from producers that use sustainable extraction methods.

But advocates say much more needs to be done to align the critical minerals industry with the goals of a just transition. Policymakers, they argue, have a crucial role to play in setting the right regulatory framework and incentives.

"We have a narrow window to get this right," said Litvin. "The decisions we make today about how we source and produce these minerals will reverberate for decades to come."

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Ask Senna more about this story:

The global push for renewable energy, electric vehicles, and other green technologies is driving a surge in demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. However, the mining and processing of these materials have often been plagued by environmental degradation, human rights abuses, and an unequal distribution of economic gains. This article highlights the need for the mining industry to prioritize sustainability, community engagement, and equitable development as it scales up production to support the energy transition.

Projected Growth in Critical Mineral Demand

Lithium 400
Cobalt 200
Rare Earths 150
Copper 100

Environmental Impacts of Critical Mineral Mining

Water Pollution 70
Habitat Destruction 65
Greenhouse Gas Emissions 55
Waste Generation 80

Community Benefits from Critical Mineral Projects

Local Job Creation – 40% Infrastructure Development – 20% Revenue Sharing – 15% Environmental Remediation – 25%
Research Brief
Dec 3, 2025 | Senna Analysis

Market Context

The shift towards a low-carbon economy is heavily dependent on securing a reliable supply of critical minerals, which are essential components in renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles. Disruptions in this supply chain could have significant implications for the broader market and investment landscape.

Key Takeaways

1 Private equity firms should closely monitor investment opportunities in critical mineral mining and processing to capitalize on the growing demand for these resources.
2 Careful due diligence on ESG practices and community engagement will be crucial for PE firms looking to invest in critical mineral projects and ensure a just transition.
3 Diversification of critical mineral supply chains, both geographically and across different extraction methods, will be a key priority for PE investors to mitigate risks.

What to Watch

The long-term outlook for critical mineral investments remains positive, but the industry must navigate complex regulatory, environmental, and social challenges to deliver a sustainable and equitable transition.

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